Reflecting On Last Week
US Market Sobers up following the years best week
The US market experienced a sharp decline this week, just one week after its best performance of the year. Following a bullish boost in price fueled by optimism from Trump’s election night victory, the market corrected, reflecting growing investor caution amid shifting conditions. This marks the worst weekly performance for major indexes since early September, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, and broader economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin Eyes $100K Milestone
Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory last week, breaking past $90,000 and climbing to record levels. The rally was fueled by renewed optimism following Trump’s re-election, with expectations of more favorable policies for digital assets. Increased institutional interest and broader adoption have further strengthened Bitcoin’s position in the financial markets. Analysts are now watching for a potential breakthrough to the $100,000 milestone. (NYPOST)
Powell: Inflation Manageable, No Need for Cuts
On November 14, during an event in Dallas, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.” He emphasized the strength of the US economy, citing steady growth and a robust labor market, while acknowledging that inflation remains elevated but manageable. His remarks suggest a cautious stance from the Fed, with no immediate plans for further rate cuts. (WSJ)
The Week Ahead: Events to Watch
This week in the US, key data releases include manufacturing and services PMI figures, as well as housing market updates such as building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales. On the monetary policy front, speeches from Federal Reserve officials will be closely watched, along with remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Global attention will also focus on interest rate decisions from central banks in China, Turkey, and South Africa, as well as the release of RBA Meeting Minutes. Inflation data will be critical, with reports expected from Canada, the UK, South Africa, and Japan, while Germany will publish its producer price index. Preliminary November PMI readings from Australia, Japan, India, France, Germany, the Euro Area, and the UK will provide early signals of economic momentum. Additionally, trade balance updates will be released for Spain, the Euro Area, Switzerland, and Japan, while retail sales and consumer confidence data will be highlighted in Canada and the UK. On the corporate side, earnings reports from major companies, including Nvidia, Walmart, Lowe’s, TJX Companies, Palo Alto Networks, Intuit, PDD Holdings, and Deere & Company, will offer insights into corporate performance and sectoral trends.
Mental Mastery Message of the Week
“Amateurs focus on how much money they can make. Professionals focus on how much they could lose.” – Jack Schwager
Levels On Our Radar This Week
S&P 500
The S&P 500 saw a significant correction this week as optimism from Trump’s election victory faded. We’re monitoring a large bullish daily fair value gap as a key condition for further price movement. Equal lows just before the recent leg up suggest potential deep retracement as the market digs into this zone.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Gold experienced another bearish week but closed with a bounce off the weekly bullish FVG. Despite breaking structure on the daily chart, the monthly chart remains firmly bullish. We’ll be monitoring these zones to determine which will dominate and indicate the continuation of price movement.
EUR/USD
As expected, EUR/USD is slicing through the low-resistance liquidity like butter and appears to be heading toward last year’s low. We’re closely observing how the price reacts to the 3-day bearish FVG. This zone will determine whether the previous yearly low is breached or left intact.
