September’s Seasonal Tendencies Strike the Stock Market
“U.S. stocks fell this week as September began, a month historically known for poor market performance dating back to the 1950s. Investors are closely watching upcoming data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts,” said Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners. (Reuters)
NVIDIA Breaks Records – on the Downside
“NVIDIA dropped nearly 10%, shedding a record $279 billion from its market cap, which ended at $2.65 trillion. That is the biggest ever single-day decline in market value for a U.S. company.” (CNBC)
CME FedWatch: Markets Shift Toward Milder Rate Cuts for September Meeting
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 69% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds rate to 500-525 bps at the September meeting, with a smaller 31% likelihood of a more aggressive cut to 475-500 bps. (CME Group FedTool)
Key Levels on Our Radar Next Week
S&P 500
In last week’s outlook, we highlighted the bull flag but cautioned about the bearish daily FVG as a key resistance level, which ultimately rejected the price and invalidated the bull flag. Looking ahead, we’ll be watching to see if price finds support at the daily bullish FVG after this decline or if the market takes a different direction.
EURUSD
Last week, the market found support at the Golden Pocket we highlighted, but faced strong rejection at the bearish daily FVG. In these conditions, when the price is caught between key levels, we recommend trading cautiously from level to level and avoiding overly ambitious targets.
XAUUSD
Gold continues to trade within a range for the third consecutive week. We’ll be monitoring whether genuine sellers are stepping in near all-time highs or if market makers are simply building liquidity to fuel the next leg up. Our focus remains on last week’s key support levels.
