Reflecting On Last Week
Third Week of Market Gains as Tech Leads
For the third straight week, stocks have continued upward momentum, driven by strong economic data and positive corporate earnings. Tech stocks, in particular, surged, with the Nasdaq reaching a two-month high following Micron Technology’s bullish earnings report. The recent rate cut has also fueled gains, helping push the Dow and S&P 500 to new all-time highs. September, usually a weaker month, is on track to close positive, marking 8 of the first 9 months higher—historically a signal for further gains in the fourth quarter. (NASDAQ)
China Markets Rally on Central Bank Stimulus
Chinese markets experienced their best week in nearly 16 years, with the CSI 300 surging 15.7%, driven by economic stimulus from the People’s Bank of China. The PBOC cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points to support stable economic growth. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also posted a significant 12.75% weekly gain, its best since 1998. (CNBC)
OpenAI Goes For-Profit
OpenAI is transitioning from a nonprofit to a for-profit public-benefit corporation to attract investors, including Microsoft and Apple, as it seeks $6.5 billion in funding. This shift comes with major personnel changes, including the resignation of CTO Mira Murati, following the departure of several other top executives. (WSJ)
The Week Ahead: Events to Watch
This week in the United States, all eyes will be on the labor market report and several appearances by Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell. Key data releases include JOLTS job openings, ADP employment figures, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, and factory orders. The labor report will offer insights into nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and wage growth. Traders will also closely follow Powell’s remarks at the National Association for Business Economics in Nashville.
Globally, inflation data will be released for the Euro Area, Turkey, and South Korea. Japan will report on industrial production, retail sales, and the Tankan Manufacturers Index, while China will release both NBS and Caixin PMI figures. Additionally, foreign trade data from Australia, South Korea, and Brazil, as well as PMI reports from key economies like Spain, Italy, and Russia, will be in focus.
Levels On Our Radar This Week
S&P 500
The S&P closed above its all-time high, though without a strong finish. Friday’s session ended right at the previous high, setting the stage for a potential retest when the market opens this week. We’re also seeing a bullish rising wedge pattern, and a weekly bullish FVG has now formed, which may be tested in the coming days.
XAUUSD
Gold continues its upward momentum, appearing to be on track toward the 3,000 mark. With few resistance levels left at these heights, the path seems relatively clear. We’ll be keeping a close eye on how it interacts with the bullish FVGs left behind during this rally, which could serve as support zones if there’s any retracement. For now, the bullish trend remains strong, and we’ll monitor how price action develops in the coming sessions.
EURUSD
The EUR/USD experienced a choppy climb last week, testing the previous month’s high before pulling back and closing at the level on Friday. As we enter the new week, we’ll be watching closely to see how the pair reacts at this key level. The bullish confluences we’ve highlighted continue to hold, and our weekly bullish bias remains intact unless market conditions suggest otherwise.
